Will Resources Run Out?

The question of whether mineral resources will run out is quite a complex one because of the uncertainties about the future availability of these resources. First, it is hard to know the total amount of a particular resource in the earth that may be accessible, because at any one time exploration has been limited and only some deposits have been identified. It is difficult and costly to find mineral deposits, and nowadays exploration involves the use of aerial and satellite pictures and sophisticated measuring instruments. The undiscovered resources can only be guessed at by using geological knowledge and theory.

Second, there is uncertainty about how much of the existing mineral resources can be recovered economically. Some deposits are close to the earth's surface and can be removed by surface excavations and open pits. Other deposits are too deep; the excavation occurs underground, and the minerals are removed via long, deep shafts. The deposits that are extracted first tend to be those that are cheapest to extract, because they are highly concentrated and are near the surface. Once these easily accessible deposits are used up, the industry has to tackle the deeper, more remote and lower-grade deposits.

This means that the costs of extracting minerals tends to increase as readily available resources are used up. There are always some known resources that, because of the gap between production costs and ruling world prices, are not worthwhile digging up at the moment. For this reason it is unlikely that any resource would actually run out altogether; rather, it might become 'economically depleted', meaning that there were no supplies left that could be utilised at a profit. Resources under the poles, under mountain ranges or under cities are unlikely ever to be mined. Other factors that may limit mining of some mineral deposits are the water and land required (which may be especially constrained in some areas of the world), and the undesirability of mining in some areas of ecological importance such as Antarctica or in national parks.

The portion of identified resources that can currently be extracted profitably is referred to as 'reserves'. 'Resources' include reserves and also those minerals that are assumed to exist but are not economically viable to extract. As mineral resources become more profitable to extract and further deposits are discovered, reserves are likely to increase (see figure). The Commonwealth Government and the Business Council both argue that there is no possibility of reserves running out because increased knowledge and the market system will automatically prevent this. This is because the price of a particular mineral rises as it becomes scarce&emdash;which provides incentives for greater exploration, more sophisticated exploration techniques, better extraction techniques, greater efficiencies in use, and the development of substitutes. In other words as price goes up reserves are likely to increase and use decrease.

Those arguing for limits to growth have often made the mistake of concentrating on reserves rather than total resources. Consequently, their predictions about reserves running out have been easily ridiculed&emdash;because the estimates of known reserves of many minerals have kept increasing, despite increasing levels of consumption in recent decades. Indeed, technological changes have enabled lower-grade deposits of minerals to be mined and processed at lower costs, and have increased the reserves of minerals such as copper. In fact, according to Miller (1990, p. 357), since 1950 known reserves of most other minerals have also increased, despite the growing level of consumption, and prices have fallen. For these reasons, the Commonwealth Government argues in its discussion paper that, although there are finite resources, the amount that can be recovered will depend on a range of technological and economic factors rather than on the quantity of total resources (1990, p. 8).

G. Tyler Miller, in his well-known text Living in the Environment, assumes that resources can become economically depleted, if not totally used up, and that the time for this to happen will vary according to how much recycling and reuse takes place, and the extent to which reserves are expanded by improved technology, price rises and new discoveries. He points out that the more optimistic one is that these conditions will occur, the further off depletion will seem. He also recognises that finding a substitute for a particular mineral will replace the curve altogether with a new one for the new material.

The Business Council is more optimistic than Miller. It sees no reason not to use as many non-renewable resources as we want, as long as the production costs and extraction costs are included in the final price of these resources. The council assumes that the pricing mechanism will extend the depletion time forever into the future.

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